Monday, December 22, 2014

Interest rate hike might not happen in 2015

Last week, the Federal Reserve made its last monetary policy announcement of the year, removing the phrase "considerable time" and replacing this with "patient."

Regarding the labor market, Janet Yellen said that overall the labor market has improved, and noted that underutilization of labor resources continuing to diminish. 

On the broader economy, Yellen said that real GDP expanded 2.5% over the four quarters ending in the third quarter, with indications showing the economy continues to grow at that pace. 

Yellen noted that the decline in oil prices "will likely hold down overall inflation in the near term." Yellen added that "as oil price declines and other transitory factors dissipate" the Fed expects inflation to move back towards its 2% target.

The Fed has noted the decline in the "market based" measures of inflation — i.e. breakevens — and said these too look transitory, though these do bear close watching. 

Yellen said that the Committee expects it will be appropriate to maintain its current policy stance "for at least the next couple of meetings."

Yellen said that most FOMC members, however, believe that it will be appropriate to begin raising rates at some time in 2015, but that the time of year depends on the economic situation.

At the time of lift off, FOMC members expect to see a further decline in the unemployment rate, with "core" inflation running near current levels, but remain confident that inflation will run back to target levels.

Yellen still maintains the view that interest rate hikes will continue to depend on incoming data.

"Based on its current assessment, the Committee judges that it can be patient in beginning to normalize the stance of monetary policy."